Fed - foreclosure is not the best solution

More than four years into the housing crisis, and after millions of Americans have lost their homes, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is finally taking a stand. Bernanke sent a Federal Reserve paper to the leaders of the House of Representatives’ Committee on Financial Services arguing that relying heavily on foreclosures to deal with mortgage borrowers that can’t meet their obligations is “costly and inefficient” for the housing market because they can lead to deteriorating homes and weigh on the property values in the surrounding community.

Instead, the paper encourages lenders to “aggressively” pursue loan modifications and for servicers to be given more incentives to seek alternatives to foreclosure. Foreclosures “can result in ‘deadweight losses,’ or costs that do not benefit anyone, including the neglect and deterioration of properties that often sit vacant for months (or even years) and the associated negative effects on neighborhoods,” the paper said. “These deadweight losses compound the losses that households and creditors already bear and can result in further downward pressure on house prices.”

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RealtyTrac: 2012 - the year of the streamlined short sale

RealtyTrac is calling 2011 the year of foreclosure litigation, strategic default, failing foreclosure law firms and shadow inventory. It also was a year of infighting between regulators, underwater mortgages and the year when Mortgage Electronic Registration Systems faced suits over everything from its business model to its assignment procedures. Joel Cone, staff writer for RealtyTrac’s Foreclosure News Report, released a lengthy report on what this year brought for the mortgage, real estate and default servicing industries.

RealtyTrac data shows it took on average 336 days to complete a foreclosure on properties that made it through the process in the third quarter of 2011, that’s up 180% from the first quarter of 2007 when it took an average 120 days, Cone said.

So what’s Cone’s take on 2012? He believes short sales will play a huge role. “The dysfunctional and delayed foreclosure process may finally be leading lenders to usher in the much-anticipated ‘year of the streamlined short sale’ in 2012,” he wrote.

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Short Sales Increase in Southern California

Over the past year, short sales and foreclosures, key indicators of the health of the housing market, have dramatically increased in Southern California. Originally, foreclosures and short sales were occurring in the Inland Empire, Lancaster and northern Los Angeles County, but now they’re creeping south.

From Jan. 1 to Dec. 1, 2010, 59 short sales were recorded in Sherman Oaks. This year during the same period, 92 homes sold in short sales with another 36 pending sales and 22 actively listed, for a total of 150 properties, a 154% increase. Meanwhile, foreclosures sold during the same months last year totaled 48, compared to 51 foreclosure sales closed, four pending and another nine on the market, for a total of 64 homes, a 33% increase.

About a third of the short sales and the majority of foreclosures occurred in pricey neighborhoods north of Ventura Boulevard. Although home prices in the southern San Fernando Valley, including Sherman Oaks, slid down about 26% to 35% during the economic downturn, they were still less than the 40% to 60% price declines recorded in other locales.

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Foreclosures are increasing

Data firm RealtyTrac said Wednesday that the decline in foreclosure filings may have hit bottom and that foreclosure activity will likely grow. The shrinking for-sale inventory could also be due to homeowners waiting to list their homes during a 6-month leveling of list prices. The year-over-year median list price was up 1.6% in September at $190,000. Markets in Florida saw significant reductions in inventories as well as rising median list prices, suggesting a measure of stability.

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Foreclosures are increasing

Foreclosures are increasing dramatically and the overall housing market is showing clear signs of a significant slow down.

So much so that leading housing economists are expecting the next few months to be ‘grim’ for home sales. One thing is clear. Investors ARE buying. Specifically they are buying short sale and foreclosure homes priced less than $200,000 nation wide. Expect this trend to continue throughout the next 12-18 months.

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More homeowners choosing short sales over foreclosure

With the number of foreclosures on the market at record highs, many troubled homeowners are looking for other options to avoid the damage to their credit and to simply get out from underneath their home loan as soon as possible. They often have a better chance of qualifying for a new mortgage soon after completing a short sale than if they were to go through a foreclosure. Banks too sometimes prefer an owner to do a short sale because it saves them from the expensive cost of a foreclosure. As a result, there are more homeowners who are avoiding foreclosure by going through a short sale.

Last year, short sales accounted for about 10% of the number of homes on the market nationwide. That figure has increased by 2% and short sales now account for about 12% of the homes on the market. In some states – such as Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, California and Colorado - short sales have become still more prevalent. In California, for example, short sales accounted for about 25% of homes sold in the second quarter of 2011, a 7% increase year-over-year. Bank of America expects to complete at least 100,000 short sales this year, which is twice as many as it completed in 2009. A Well Fargo senior vice president claims that short sales have increased recently because there are not as many bank-owned homes on the market in some areas, leaving eager buyers to actively seek out short sales.

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Short Sales on the increase

According to RealtyTrac, short sales are increasing as a percentage of home sales in many states, helping some neighborhoods and homeowners avoid the more devastating impacts of foreclosures. The increases were sharper in some states, including California, Nevada, Michigan, Georgia and Colorado, the data show.

In California, they made up 25% of sales, vs. 18%. Bank of America, the largest home mortgage servicer, expects to complete more than 100,000 short sales this year — more than double what it did in 2009, the bank says. Wells Fargo Senior Vice President J.K. Huey says short sales have been “steady to slightly” up in recent months, partly because there are fewer bank-owned houses for sale in some markets, and that has forced buyers to pursue more short-sale properties.

In the second quarter, short-sale homes sold at a 21% discount to non-foreclosure homes, while bank-owned homes went at a 40% discount, RealtyTrac says. Short sales may also reduce losses for loan owners because they avoid full foreclosure costs.
Borrowers may qualify for new mortgages sooner after a short sale than after a foreclosure.

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FHA Loan Limit Dropping in Riverside and OC effective Oct-1-2011

Riverside and San Bernardino will no longer be considered a high cost area in the eyes of Fannie Mae or Freddie Mac…this will impact you when buying a home in the mid $350,000 to mid $450,00 price range.

County New FHA loan Limit New Conforming Limit
Riverside County $355,350 $417,000
San Bernardino County $355,350 $417,000
San Diego County $546,250 $546,250
Orange County $625,500 $625,500
Los Angeles County $625,500 $625,500

Banks now prefer short sales to foreclosures

Banks dealing with lengthy, complicated and frequently messy foreclosures are starting to see “short sales” as a quicker and cheaper way of getting bad loans off their books. The nation’s biggest mortgage servicers- Bank of America, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo - are beginning to step up their efforts to ease the short sale process for borrowers who are unsuccessful in getting loan modifications and face the threat of foreclosure. Servicers are attempting to reach out to borrowers and are paying out more incentives to those suffering financial hardship to help proceed with a short sale. They are also cutting down the time taken to approve short sales.

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Short sale or wait for housing recovery?

RealtyTrac reported 1.7 million homes in some stage of foreclosure. There are over 6 million homes either in foreclosure or in some stage of mortgage delinquency. Compare that to the annualized rate of existing home sales in June (most not REO sales) of 4.77 million units. This is an enormous supply of housing stock, not even including the supply of newly built homes for sale right now (164,000..I know, a pittance), at a time when consumers have made a major shift toward renting.

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